12-07-2021, 12:13 AM
Is it possible that “bull” and “bear” markets simply no longer apply to cryp
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Every spike it’s “bull market” this or that, and every crash it’s “bear market” blah blah. In the past we’ve definitely had clear bull and bear markets at various times, but when you look at the past year or so things have been far too erratic to call any of it “bull” or “bear” market. A <em>run</em> maybe, but not a market. </p> <p>Bull markets and bear markets are terms that were created for the stock market, not for crypto. Sure they’ve worked for crypto too so far, but crypto is new and evolving, and the ways it’s markets work are still growing and finding their own patterns. </p> <p>We’ve seen crazy new all time highs in the past year or so, but we’ve also crashed dramatically from them. More than once. Maybe we’ve reached the point where crypto has simply become too erratic and too different from the stock market and the patterns we’re all used too for us to keep trying to conceive of it in old ways. </p> <p>Maybe we need to stop asking “is this the bear market?” at every dip or crash and stop wondering “how long will this bull market last?” at every peak? Maybe it’s become more nuanced than that, and we need to start accepting that nobody knows shit about fuck and anything could happen at any time, <em>always</em>.</p> <p>It’s a new paradigm. A new game. Old patterns don’t necessarily apply any more. Every day in this market is a complete unknown, and any attempt to conceive of the market as a whole according to old and familiar patterns has the potential to lead us astray.</p> <p>It’s worth repeating: anything could happen at any time. <strong>Seriously.</strong> This could be the start of a long hard multi-year crypto winter, or we could theoretically still hit 100k btc by end of year. (<strong>Highly</strong> unlikely, yeah, but this is crypto. <em>Anything could happen.</em>) <strong>Nobody knows shit about fuck.</strong> Time to accept that fact, let go of outdated and limiting ways of thinking, and continue to venture boldly and blindly into the unknown. After all, isn’t that what we all do best?</p> <hr/> <p>edit: as I said in response to someone below, I guess the real question is: how long does a run need to be for it to be considered a “market”? I have always thought of a bull or bear <em>market</em> as at least a couple of months, and bull or bear <em>runs</em> to be extreme jumps in either direction, and the rest to just be good ol’ erratic crypto. Others in the comments seem to view it differently though… Is this just another issue that boils down to different definitions of words?</p> <hr/> <p>edit edit: in addition to a lot of interesting comments and discussion, there are number of people here who seem <em>personally</em> offended by my post, some of whom are reacting by insulting my ideas or even my intelligence. To those of you: <strong>I am not saying that these terms are meaningless.</strong> I am also not blindly advocating for their removal from the common vernacular. All I’m doing here here is asking questions and exploring concepts, and trying to have an interesting discussion. I am completely open to the idea that these terms <em>should</em> be used, and many of you have made very eloquent points to support that idea.</p> <p>The goal of this post was to explore a concept that I think most take for granted, and talk about ways in which these terms do or do not apply to crypto markets. I see many, especially newbies, fearfully asking if this is the bear market at <em>every</em> dip. And these perceptions and expectations of a looming extended decline, true or false, color people’s views and influence investor’s decisions. So, seeing the power and influence these concepts have, I wanted to explore the validity of these viewpoints. </p> <p>And while I recognize that crypto is a market that follows many of the rules created by other markets, crypto is also unique and unlike anything that has come before it. The motivations behind spikes and drops vary from other markets, and the growth and adoption curve of this radical new technology is unique and stands out from other investments. As such, I believe there is value in exploring and questioning each old concept that we apply to this new tech, if for no other reason than to affirm their validity. </p> <p>If you truly see <em>no</em> value in exploring how and if old concepts apply to new markets and technologies, and instead just blindly insist that such concepts <em>must</em> apply because “cRyPtO iS a MaRkEt,” perhaps all this exciting new technology is simply too much for you, and you should stick to stocks. </p> <p>To the rest of you: thanks for an interesting and nuanced discussion. I’ve learned a lot and found it all very interesting. Cheers!</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/MyCryptoStuffAccount"> /u/MyCryptoStuffAccount </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/r9ytsx/is_it_possible_that_bull_and_bear_markets_simply/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/r9ytsx/is_it_possible_that_bull_and_bear_markets_simply/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Every spike it’s “bull market” this or that, and every crash it’s “bear market” blah blah. In the past we’ve definitely had clear bull and bear markets at various times, but when you look at the past year or so things have been far too erratic to call any of it “bull” or “bear” market. A <em>run</em> maybe, but not a market. </p> <p>Bull markets and bear markets are terms that were created for the stock market, not for crypto. Sure they’ve worked for crypto too so far, but crypto is new and evolving, and the ways it’s markets work are still growing and finding their own patterns. </p> <p>We’ve seen crazy new all time highs in the past year or so, but we’ve also crashed dramatically from them. More than once. Maybe we’ve reached the point where crypto has simply become too erratic and too different from the stock market and the patterns we’re all used too for us to keep trying to conceive of it in old ways. </p> <p>Maybe we need to stop asking “is this the bear market?” at every dip or crash and stop wondering “how long will this bull market last?” at every peak? Maybe it’s become more nuanced than that, and we need to start accepting that nobody knows shit about fuck and anything could happen at any time, <em>always</em>.</p> <p>It’s a new paradigm. A new game. Old patterns don’t necessarily apply any more. Every day in this market is a complete unknown, and any attempt to conceive of the market as a whole according to old and familiar patterns has the potential to lead us astray.</p> <p>It’s worth repeating: anything could happen at any time. <strong>Seriously.</strong> This could be the start of a long hard multi-year crypto winter, or we could theoretically still hit 100k btc by end of year. (<strong>Highly</strong> unlikely, yeah, but this is crypto. <em>Anything could happen.</em>) <strong>Nobody knows shit about fuck.</strong> Time to accept that fact, let go of outdated and limiting ways of thinking, and continue to venture boldly and blindly into the unknown. After all, isn’t that what we all do best?</p> <hr/> <p>edit: as I said in response to someone below, I guess the real question is: how long does a run need to be for it to be considered a “market”? I have always thought of a bull or bear <em>market</em> as at least a couple of months, and bull or bear <em>runs</em> to be extreme jumps in either direction, and the rest to just be good ol’ erratic crypto. Others in the comments seem to view it differently though… Is this just another issue that boils down to different definitions of words?</p> <hr/> <p>edit edit: in addition to a lot of interesting comments and discussion, there are number of people here who seem <em>personally</em> offended by my post, some of whom are reacting by insulting my ideas or even my intelligence. To those of you: <strong>I am not saying that these terms are meaningless.</strong> I am also not blindly advocating for their removal from the common vernacular. All I’m doing here here is asking questions and exploring concepts, and trying to have an interesting discussion. I am completely open to the idea that these terms <em>should</em> be used, and many of you have made very eloquent points to support that idea.</p> <p>The goal of this post was to explore a concept that I think most take for granted, and talk about ways in which these terms do or do not apply to crypto markets. I see many, especially newbies, fearfully asking if this is the bear market at <em>every</em> dip. And these perceptions and expectations of a looming extended decline, true or false, color people’s views and influence investor’s decisions. So, seeing the power and influence these concepts have, I wanted to explore the validity of these viewpoints. </p> <p>And while I recognize that crypto is a market that follows many of the rules created by other markets, crypto is also unique and unlike anything that has come before it. The motivations behind spikes and drops vary from other markets, and the growth and adoption curve of this radical new technology is unique and stands out from other investments. As such, I believe there is value in exploring and questioning each old concept that we apply to this new tech, if for no other reason than to affirm their validity. </p> <p>If you truly see <em>no</em> value in exploring how and if old concepts apply to new markets and technologies, and instead just blindly insist that such concepts <em>must</em> apply because “cRyPtO iS a MaRkEt,” perhaps all this exciting new technology is simply too much for you, and you should stick to stocks. </p> <p>To the rest of you: thanks for an interesting and nuanced discussion. I’ve learned a lot and found it all very interesting. Cheers!</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/MyCryptoStuffAccount"> /u/MyCryptoStuffAccount </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/r9ytsx/is_it_possible_that_bull_and_bear_markets_simply/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/r9ytsx/is_it_possible_that_bull_and_bear_markets_simply/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R